Wherein lies the value? (Part 2)

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Wherein lies the value? (Part 2)

I continue the explanation of value betting. I advise readers to read Part 1 if they have not done so already.

3. Opponent raises and we call


Here the matter is complicated by the fact that we do not have the initiative and often are out of position, especially when it comes to defending the blinds. Therefore, the call will be +EV if the strength of our hard is significantly higher than our opponent's, or if he plays too straightforwardly, and we will be able to beat him, even we do not make a hand.


The most common mistake made by players at lower limits – is to call out of position with connectors to catch something , even when multi-way. Remember, if you go to the felt to catch the draw, you are violating the basic rule of poker "to go to the felt  with the best hand and drag in the worse" because if you are catch a draw and get a call bet from your opponent's top pair, then both you and he are investing the same amount , and he will win 2 of 3 times , i.e. you get yourself into a negative situation. Moreover, when you do catch your draw, without position, you will find it very difficult to get paid , i.e. your overall chances are very poor.


To properly evaluate the profitability of a call, do not forget that in contrast to the situation when we raise, when we call from the blinds we have better odds, i.e. if we raise we put in 3bb and an opponent puts in 3bb (if not in a blind) but in the BB the opponent puts in 3BB and if we call, we put in 2 BBs.


2 . In other words, we can afford to win less than half the time, because we are investing a smaller amount for more gain.


With this in mind, what hands can we call raises with and what value can we extract from these hands?


The most likely scenario :

a) We catch air and call down a bluff continuation bet and win pfr + cbet.


b) We catch air and call 2 streets against a barreler , who is trying to push us out with a draw. In general, this situation is equivalent , to us having top pair and the opponent called with a draw.  In other words we will both put in the same contribution to the pot, but he will win in 35% of cases, and we in 65%. Another way you can collect on the river is if an aggressive player always bets a missed draw.


c) We catch top pair, the opponent catches second pair. We play check / call - check -bet , and he calls, if the board did not complete a FD. So we win Pfr + cbet + bet on the river.


Also here you can add an option when your opponent catches a second pair and checks  and we catch our overcards on later streets and collect a single bet from him (for example, we have QT, he 97o and the board comes J78Q3)


Thus, you should choose to call these hands , which which are likely to be on top in real-life game conditions. Typically this means high-card hands, e.g. T + picture . The wider the opponent opens the wider your possible call-range.


For example, if your opponent opens 40 % , then we are in contact with AT almost always be older, and even if we do not get , we can win it ( as in the example QT), furthermore, we can hit even without vkoly cbet being older than , for example, on the board or 733 K25r.

But if you raise colitis with connectors , you just can not be over , because you have an 8 -high , but your opponent can raise Ax, Kxs, Qxs, Jxs, T7s etc. Even if you catch something , you often will not believe the older, plus you will often drag / vyblefovyvat because you initially weak hand and worse opponent's hand .


4. We raised and the opponent re-raised us. This situation is divided into two parts:


1) We re-raise and 4-bet all-in. The most common mistake here is with AK . Most of the players in this situation looks at their cards and says to themselves - I have AK , I will play 4bet/koll . Remember the basic idea of poker " go hand in with the better hand and drag in theworse." So if you play 4bet/call here , it is obvious - it's a 4-bet for value. If you want your opponent to fold to a 4-bet , then why do you need AK?  I 'm not saying that 4-bet here is unprofitable, it is possible that your opponent will fold, but that it is necessary to determine the profitability of playing each hand and take the most lucrative option. If the opponent  often folds , then it is better to 4-bet with garbage. Because with garbage we can not profitably call a 3bet and AK clearly can (this is much the same scenario as calling a preflop raise).


Applying this logic to the 4bet/call issue, the analysis is as follows. Against his range a bet with KK is obviously for value, because we can stack an opponent for 100BB, but if he would call me with AA, AK, QQ, JJ - then we go all in hand with the better hand and drag in the worse hand.  With AK I go in with a worse hand ( best case scenario is that I have 47 to 53).


So pushing is usually only the best course of action if your opponent responds with worse hands, i.e. AK should shove, if we know that it can catch out AQ.


2) We call a 3bet. In this situation, we have some advantages: we are in position (without position calling a 3bet is a very bad idea) and we need to put in a smaller amount for a larger one (usually 7bb into a pot of 3+10 = 13bb ), i.e. we need to win a little more often than once every three times. However, there is significant downside — we do not have the initiative. In this article I will not go into the float play in 3bet pots, bluff -raises and such like.  For now, our task is to understand the basic idea of entering a 3bet pot, i.e. when we can get enough value out of our hands to call.


Let's start with the most common error, which I have already mentioned – coming into the pot with connectors to catch a draw. If you enter the pot with this in mind, then you get into a negative game, because with a draw against the top pair you will invest the same amount but your winning chances will be in the region of 35-40%. Generally coming in with connectors after a 3bet with the aim of catching something is an unprofitable undertaking, you put money into the pot with a worse hand unnecessarily.  Even if he 3bets hands like Ax, K9s +, Q9s, then you may still be behind with connectors even if you hit and can wind up losing the hand. He will start off with the  better hand and he will generally win more than you. (Compare the following, for example, if you take AQ against K9s, even if the flop comes 933 you still have 25% but if you come in with 78s against K9s, with 933 on the board you have virtually no outs.)


Now, what hands are worth playing for an overcall? The principle is the same as when we call a raise, ie come in after a 3bet means that we need to be sure that if we hit we will be on top. That being so, choosing hands to call a 3bet depends on what people 3bet. The wider the opponent's range, the wider you can go, but again, give preference to high cards. By default, it makes sense to call with AK, AQ, JJ.


Well, as always here are the most common ways in which we can win:


1) We catch a pair or we have an average pocket pair and call a continuation bet bluff (opponent has Qts the board is K93, and we have AK or JJ).


2) The opponent catches a draw and we catch top pair and go to the felt with 60-65%.


3) The opponent catches a middle pair, we have top-pair/overpair and he plays cbet-check/call (opponent has 88, the board is T644 and we have JJ; he has K9s the board is 69Q2, and we have AQ)


4) A textbook option, but not the most likely - we both catch top pair, but we have the best kicker and he gave us a stack of chips.

Well, you can add here more options when we win, even without getting anywhere, for example, we have AK on a board of 733 - here you can call down a continuation bet and try to check down to the river. It is also possible scenario that the opponent is stronger on the flop, but we catch good. Say he has J8s and the board JT4 and we have Kqs, or he has 78 on a board of T76 and does not make a continuation bet and we have AQ and catch our outs on the turn or the river.


So, always think about why you are entering the pot - to bluff your opponent or to bet for value and clearly understand what is the value of your hand in this situation.


P.S. As promised her is a screenshot of my results (with the nicknames indicated to dispel all doubts).