Stats Are Nothing, Analysis is Everything (Part 2)

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Stats Are Nothing, Analysis is Everything (Part 2)

So, if the first mistake when assessing stats concerns corrections in one's own game, the second error concerns interpreting the opponent's range.

Previous article

 

As may be noted here

 

1. Stats differ by position

 

Many will say, we know, we know, 3 bet in position, fold on cbet in position/without position. Thanks Holdem Manager

 

So let's look at some less obvious examples

 

A) Assume the opponent raises UTG with 17%, folds to 3 bet 57% UTG and 55% overall. At the same time, fold to cbet in a 3-bet pot is 60%. There is an idea that if he so willingly gives up on the flop, you can move in pre-flop with any garbage to knock him off the pot with a continuation bet. That may be so, but you do not take into account that it was originally a strong range, in contrast to the situation for example, when he raises from the button and calls a 3bet. So, in a situation where he is UTG against the BTN he will call less on the BTN against the SB he will often call. Say he folds to a continuation bet when he calls a 3-bet 50% of the time UTG but in late position against the blinds it is 65% and this is now an average of 60 %.

 

B) Villain's raise from UTG is 18%, we call on the button with 9s8s. Flop comes KH, 6H, 4D, opponent c-bets (69%) and we draw that the opponent's fold to raise of c-bet is 58%. But again remember that the opponents initial range is stronger than if would be if he had raised on the button (45%), and you were in the BB. Therefore it is more likely that he will fold to a raise of a continuation bet the button against blinds 65% than UTG 48%.

 

2. Stats differ depending on the structure of the board

 

If at player's stats show a C bet frequency of 70% that absolutely does not mean that he c-bets all boards with the same frequency. As rule when he is without a hand, he will more often (say 85%) bet on boards, where his adversary often not hit and the PF-raiser hits (K75ss, A6Tss, AQ2r, KJ4r, KT3ss) and less (50-55%) on boards that hit the opponent and where it is unlikely that the PF-raiser hit (227r, 678ss, 975r)

 

That same rule generally works with cbets on the turn. If an opponent c-bets about 55% to 75% per street, it in no way not follows that he will double-barrel all boards with the same frequency.

 

It is more likely that he will very often (80-85%) bet with overcards, with draws and with combo-hands (overcards + gutshot) and very rarely (30-35%) on a blank turn (without a hand), especially if there is no flush draw on board.

 

3. Stats vary depending on the opponent (and their number)

 

Here you have several examples

 

A) In multiway pots people bluff with continuation bets less than usually

 

B) Villain with a fold to c-bet of 40% without position, calls a SB raise pre flop and the BB also calls. In such a situation the SB will practically never c-bet with a hand worse second pair with top kicker and even less likely float against more one player. Fold to c-bet in such situation will be 60-65%.

 

C) A player c-bets the streets 70-50-55. However this does not means he is a maniac bluffer and barrels all 3 streets (by the way if someone bets into you on all 3 streets in normal pot, it is very often 2 pair or better). It can mean for example that he is against fish and is value-betting on 3 streets with top pair with any kicker and even second pair with a good kicker (i.e. against fish c-bet the streets 60-60-65) and against regs bet the river only with hand (c-bet 45% on the river)

 

4. The stats are identical, but the ranges are different (short stack and 100 BB)

 

What does this mean? Look again at the same c-bet by streets. If he is playing a full stack with these 70-50-55 indicators, it means that on the river he can bet of the pot with a wide range: TPTK or better to missed draw and against fish might even bet top pair with any kicker.

 

For the small stack it means that on river he almost always has top pair with any kicker. He is simply going nowhere, on the river the pot is more than he has left in his stack.

 

Or as another example, take raising a c-bet. If a full stack raises 20%, it again means the same polar range: 2 pair or better, a draw, a bluff. If a short stack makes the same raise of 20%, generally it will not be a bluff, but top pair with any kicker (especially if at it 20-25 bb) for the same reasons – stack size comparable with the size of the pot.

 

I will therefore remind you of a quote from Gelfond: "When you take an action, you are telling your opponent a story about your hand and he will tell you his story.. And yours task is to work out what is in hand and to mislead him about what is in yours."