I smell a rat (Part 2)

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I smell a rat (Part 2)

Part 1, I wrote a long time ago, but talking to students, I see that many people are paranoid about the fact that, according to them, no one folds to their 3bet; when they have aces, they raise and everyone folds; no one pays off their value bets and such other gripes little related to reality.

Previous article: I smell a rat (Part 1)


What is happening is very simple. It is the effect of the emotional anchor to the situation. It is human nature to remember events that triggered strong emotions and forget those that occur from time to time and are perceived as self-evident.  Take, for example, the c-bet, your opponent folds, well, everything is standard, as it should be. But if he not only does not fold, but raises your continuation bet, then immediately righteous fury begins to boil and you think - “Oh, you bastard”, especially if the board is, say, A74r and you have QJ, i.e., even if you suspect that your opponent is dry — there is little you can do about it. And if it happened 2-3 times per 1,000 hands, and these are very nasty situations, then the seed of doubt begins to germinate. Can he really see everything that I have to know when I would prefer a fold to a raise of my continuation bet and why does he raise so often? And it starts needling us, he can read me like a book, it was all planned. And all because of these two unfortunate hands. We remember them  and when a few more times we put out a C-bet and the opponent folds, we do not remember. Why do these hands slip under our mental radar?


I will tell you a little secret, most (not all of course, but many) opponents even at nl200 (do not even worry about 100) play by looking at their cards, or multi- table following an automated strategy, they do not bother about adjusting their play to you specifically and if you have not gone out of your way to get on a person's nerves, he will not take the time to think, yeah that's got the same player, with a great fold to 4bet rate - now I will 4bet everything specifically against him.  Let me stress, there are some, but for most do not concern themselves with what you do, they have a lot more important hands at the other tables.


However, it may be the case that you really have such glaring stats that opponents do play against you somehow differently (for example, if you have a very large fold to 3bet rate, then you are likely to be three-bet more often, or if you have a continuation bets on the three streets of 75-60-55, then your 3-barrels will be called much more liberal than against the others). Or there is another option, for example in this field (in this room), people play their hands differently. For example in one room people with top pair play call call and the other people play call flop min-raise turn to buy a cheap showdown. And if you are used to the fact that a raise on the turn is a plus 2 pairs, then when faced with play in another room where people  will raise top pair on the turn, you will fold and wonder - why the opponents are dealt monsters much more often than in the other room.


So what are we to do? How do we avoid falling into paranoia and find out what the situation really is?


In this way - if you think something , ie you have a hypothesis, then your job is to test this hypothesis in your database.

Well for starters let’s tackle the supporters of the theory of a global conspiracy and twisted RNG . For example, you think that when you get dealt aces, everyone folds to your raise. It’s very simple to check out. We go to the XM filters, select all pocket pairs, put a filter that no one entered the pot before us (either with a raise or with a limp) and we raised and see how many hands we find. Next put in a filter saw flop = true and see how many of those times when we raised a pocket pair, someone stuck around and we saw the flop. The average value is around 48-50%. Now do the same operation for KK and AA- look at what happens and calm down, everything is OK.


Now a more serious example. We think that we are 4bet often. But to find out whether or not this is the case, it is necessary to know the average. For example, how much the average reg is 4bet to per 1000 hands. (Important point - when determining the average you should look at regs who share your 3bet rate, it is obvious that an opponent with a 3bet rate of 11% and on with a rate of 6%  will be 4bet with a different frequency).


So that's 7% 3bet mean getting 4bet 4.5 times out of 1000 hands, -5hands/1000 8% , 5.5 times=9% etc.


By knowing this, and comparing your performance with the average , it is possible to draw conclusions as to how you compare with the competition . And if you see exactly that you really are being 4bet more often, it means that for some time you will need to restrict your 3bets to when you have a genuine hand.  Opponents will look at their own databases and think that you have a high 3bet rate and a high fold rate, so they will 4bet more often and every time they do, you will go all in, cashing in on their image to the tune of 20-25 BB. When people start to catch on and stop re-raising you, you can start 3-betting a wider range.


Similarly checked out any of your doubts . Do you think there are people paying attention to your fold to a raise to c-bet and raise more often – use your database to check out whether or not this is so. At the same time, if there is data on your opponents, it is very useful to investigate of what people have to when they or what type of board they make continuation bets . Sometimes, these checks provide very useful information such as the one I gave in the example with a raise on the turn.


Or let's say you think that no one believes you and your 3 a barrel is called down with top pair or even second pair. Put in a filter that you put in 3 barrels (taking away the blind on blind hands, which are unnecessary for this purpose, opponents are less likely to really believe the enemy) , and see with what your regulars call 3 barrels. If, for example you looked at 20 hands and saw that you werecalled  with a hand worse than + 2 pairs 3 times, and 17 times you were showed a monster, your suspicions are wrong. And vice versa - if out of 20 times, when you get called 12 times you are showed top pair or even worse, it means your barrels are not respected and you have 3 streets to bet for value, not to bluff.


Thanks for reading. Good luck at the tables to you all!